Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Como?

Our model rates Como as the favourite with a 55.8% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Genoa 15.4%, draw 26.8%, Como 55.8%.

Where can I watch Genoa vs Como?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Genoa vs Como?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 42.5% probability and Under 2.5 goals 57.5%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 833 picks Serie A Friday 4 September 2026, 19:45

Genoa vs Como Predictions & Odds

G Genoa 15.4% @4.80

VS Draw 26.8%

C Como 55.8% @1.80

Our model call Clear favourites: Como A 56% call, draw at 27%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Genoa 15% 4.80 Draw 27% 3.25 Como 56% 1.80

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 58% 1.68 Over 2.5 42% 2.20 Over 1.5 @1.40

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 55% 1.67 Yes 45% 2.15

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Genoa Win	15.4%	23.4%	8 pts under
Both Teams to Score	44.8%	51.3%	6 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	42.5%	46.5%	4 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 8.5 Match Corners 51% (model) Corners: Genoa avg 4.5 for/3.6 against, Como avg 6.8 for/2.6 against → expected 8.8 match corners
Over 3.5 Match Cards 41% (model) Cards: Genoa avg 1.3/game, Como avg 2.0/game → expected 3.3 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 57% (model) Fouls: Genoa avg 9.5/game, Como avg 12.0/game → expected 21.5 match fouls
Over 24.5 Match Shots 50% (model) Shots: Genoa avg 11.3/game, Como avg 13.3/game → expected 24.7 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

01The read

Can Como Get the Job Done at Genoa?

Genoa have lost 3 straight, and the model makes the visitors 56% favourites.

Como slight edge (56%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

A Serie A meeting between Genoa (17th, 0 pts) and Como (10th, 1 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.

Our verdict

Como shade it at 56%, though Genoa won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Como with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.

Our pick

Our PickComo to win at @1.80. Model probability 56% vs implied 56%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.

Model56%

Market56%

Key facts

🤝

Draw Merchants 4 draws from 6 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here

🎯

Chances Favour Away Como come out at +1.0 a game on chance quality against Genoa's -0.4. The visitors are creating far better chances

🔥

Creative Force Como creating chances worth 2.0 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home

📉

Home Wobble Genoa arrive off 3 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early

▸ Form & goals

Genoa will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D0 L1 at home). Como's away record reads W0 D1 L0. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Como have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Como average 1.0 points per game compared to Genoa's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Como come out at +1.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Genoa create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Como create 1.8 (giving up 0.8) for a balance of +1.0. On the quality of chances, Como look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Genoa average 0.2 goals per game and Como manage 1.0. Combined that's just 1.2. We make it only 43% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.

Both teams score in 47% of Genoa's home games and 37% of Como's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Genoa need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.

In the last 6 meetings: Genoa have won 0, Como 2, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 1 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Genoa 0-2 Como, Como 1-1 Genoa, Como 1-0 Genoa, Genoa 1-1 Como.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (19%) and 0-2 (14%).

First Half Result

Genoa HT 5.00
Draw HT 2.05
Como HT 2.30

Team Intel

📊 Genoa · xG

For: 0.96/g Against: 1.31/g

📊 Como · xG

For: 1.75/g Against: 0.80/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Genoa vs Como Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Genoa Win	@4.80	15.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.25	26.8%	William Hill
Match Result	Como Win	@1.80	55.8%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@2.15	44.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.67	55.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.20	42.5%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.68	57.5%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.05	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@4.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.25	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Genoa

3L streak

Last 5 LLLDD

At home LLL

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 53% FTS 39%

Como

5 unbeaten

Last 5 DWWWD

On the road DWWW

Clean sheets 50% BTTS 42% FTS 24%

Genoa vs Como Team Stats

Genoa CFC

Position 17

Played 1

Record 0W-0D-1L

Goals F/A 0/2

Avg Goals Scored 0.17

Overall Form LLLDD

Home Form LLL

Home Record 0W-0D-1L

Como 1907

Position 10

Played 1

Record 0W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 1/1

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 1

Overall Form DWWWD

Away Form DWWW

Away Record 0W-1D-0L

Genoa vs Como Head to Head

0 Home Wins 4 Draws 2 Away Wins

2.2 Avg Goals

4/6 BTTS

1/6 Over 2.5

2026-04-26 Genoa 0-2 Como

2025-09-15 Genoa 1-1 Como

2025-04-27 Genoa 0-1 Como

2024-11-07 Genoa 1-1 Como

2023-04-10 Genoa 2-2 como

2022-11-13 Genoa 1-1 como

Full Genoa vs Como head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 18.6%

0-2 14.0%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Como under 2.5 goals 85% @1.22 Bet365
Como over 0.5 goals 85% @1.20 10Bet
Under 2 second half goals 85% @1.18 Marathon Bet
Under 3.5 goals 84% @1.25 Bet365
Genoa over 1.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Como under 7.5 corners 82% @1.22 Unibet
Over 0.5 second half goals 81% @1.33 William Hill
Genoa or Como (double chance) 80% @1.37 1xBet
Genoa under 4.5 corners 80% @1.25 Unibet
Under 3 goals 78% @1.30 Unibet
Under 10.5 corners 78% @1.28 Unibet
Over 6.5 corners 78% @1.29 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Genoa v Como builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.32
2 Over 1.5 Goals 72% @ 1.39
3 Both Teams to Score - No 55% @ 1.81

@3.33 £10 returns £33.33

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 833 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Genoa vs Como: FAQs

Who will win Genoa vs Como?

Our model makes Como the favourite with a 55.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Genoa vs Como?

Best available odds: Genoa @ 4.80, Draw @ 3.25, Como @ 1.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Genoa vs Como kick off?

Genoa vs Como kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Como?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.8% probability.

Genoa vs Como prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Como to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.