AS Roma vs Atalanta Predictions & Odds
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
AS Roma have won five straight; Atalanta have taken five points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Serie A tie.
One thing to keep in mind about AS Roma. They're scoring 2.6 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.7. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. The gap in chance quality is clear: AS Roma come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. AS Roma have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.3 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.7. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
AS Roma create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 0.9), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Atalanta create 1.4 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour AS Roma. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. AS Roma are scoring 2.6 goals a game off chances worth just 1.7. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. AS Roma are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.3 a game over the last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. AS Roma are scoring 2.6 a game (2.6 of those at home) and Atalanta manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). AS Roma shut the door in 47% of their games and Atalanta draw a blank in 21% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams score in 26% of AS Roma's home games and 63% of Atalanta's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
AS Roma are in great shape right now, banging in 2.6 a game and only letting in 0.4. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | AS Roma Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Atalanta Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.