03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
53.2% |
65.8% |
13 pts under
|
| Fulham Win |
23.5% |
29.6% |
6 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
61.7% |
63.7% |
2 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 10.5 Match Corners
43% (model)
Corners: Fulham avg 3.7 for/6.7 against, Chelsea avg 5.0 for/4.8 against → expected 10.1 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
47% (model)
Cards: Fulham avg 1.7/game, Chelsea avg 2.8/game → expected 4.5 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
51% (model)
Fouls: Fulham avg 13.3/game, Chelsea avg 11.5/game → expected 24.8 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
54% (model)
Shots: Fulham avg 12.0/game, Chelsea avg 15.3/game → expected 27.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Fulham vs Chelsea
The model makes Chelsea 49% favourites here. Fulham carry the 24% upset.
Chelsea slight edge (49%) | Three or more goals likely (62%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Fulham have taken 7 points from their last five; Chelsea have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Chelsea edge it at 49% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our pick
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.62. Model probability 62% vs implied 62%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Chelsea's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 62% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Fulham average just 0.7 goals per game and Chelsea manage 0.8. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Interestingly, Fulham look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.3 a game, but they're only converting 0.7 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Fulham create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Chelsea create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Fulham should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.3 a game but they're only getting 0.7 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Fulham average 0.7 goals per game and Chelsea manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.4. Even so, we make it 62% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 53% of Fulham's home games and 68% of Chelsea's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Fulham do it the hard way: only 0.7 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Fulham have won 3, Chelsea 6, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Fulham 2-1 Chelsea, Chelsea 2-0 Fulham, Fulham 1-2 Chelsea, Chelsea 1-2 Fulham.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (5%) and 1-3 (1%).
First Half Result
-
Fulham HT
3.80
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
Chelsea HT
2.40
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Fulham · xG
For: 1.29/g
Against: 1.30/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.59/g, value possible
📊 Chelsea · xG
For: 1.41/g
Against: 1.42/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Fulham vs Chelsea Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Fulham Win |
@3.75
|
23.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.70
|
27.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Chelsea Win |
@1.85
|
49.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.57
|
53.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.38
|
46.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.62
|
61.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.38
|
38.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.55
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Fulham vs Chelsea Head to Head
3 Home Wins
1 Draws
6 Away Wins
2.1
Avg Goals
4/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-01-07
Fulham 2-1 Chelsea
2025-08-30
Fulham 0-2 Chelsea
2025-04-20
Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
2024-12-26
Fulham 2-1 Chelsea
2024-01-13
Fulham 0-1 Chelsea
2023-10-02
Fulham 0-2 Chelsea
2023-07-30
Fulham 0-2 Chelsea
2023-02-03
Fulham 0-0 Chelsea
2023-01-12
Fulham 2-1 Chelsea
2021-05-01
Fulham 0-2 Chelsea
Full Fulham vs Chelsea head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
5.2%
1-3
1.4%
0-3
1.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
69%
@1.55
Unibet
-
Under 6.5 cards
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Chelsea over 3.5 corners
Smart
82%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Danny Welbeck 1+ shots on target
78%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Marc Guiu 1+ shots on target
77%
@1.30
Bet365
Combined 4.22
· £5 returns
£21.11
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Kevin Macedo 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Under 4 goals
84%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Fulham or Chelsea (double chance)
83%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Chelsea or Draw (double chance)
83%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Nicolas Jackson 2+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Under 6.5 cards
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Chelsea over 3.5 corners
82%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Chelsea over 1 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
-
Fulham under 6.5 corners
80%
@1.32
Superbet
Build a slip from these markets →