Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Our model rates Paris FC as the favourite with a 44.3% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Estac Troyes 28.2%, draw 27.5%, Paris FC 44.3%.

Where can I watch Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 57.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 42.3%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Predictions & Odds

E Estac Troyes 28.2% @2.70

VS Draw 27.5%

P Paris FC 44.3% @2.38

Our model call Leans Paris FC, but only just A 44% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Estac Troyes 28% 2.70 Draw 28% 3.50 Paris FC 44% 2.38

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 42% 2.23 Over 2.5 58% 1.73 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 2.30 Yes 55% 1.57

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

Want our pick every time Estac Troyes play?

Get the model's verified verdict on Estac Troyes (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.

03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	54.9%	65.8%	11 pts under
Estac Troyes Win	28.2%	38.0%	10 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	57.7%	60.2%	3 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Analysing Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: Who Wins?

Estac Troyes 28%, the draw 28%, Paris FC 44%. That's the shape of this one.

Paris FC slight edge (44%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

The bookmakers open Estac Troyes at @2.70 for this Ligue 1 tie, with Paris FC out at @2.38.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Paris FC edge it at 44% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of Paris FC's matches this season

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Estac Troyes average 0.0 goals per game and Paris FC manage 2.0. Combined that's just 2.0. Even so, we make it 58% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.

▸ Team news & context

Estac Troyes do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Paris FC have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (6%) and 0-3 (4%).

First Half Result

Estac Troyes HT 3.00
Draw HT 2.30
Paris FC HT 2.80

Team Intel

📊 Paris FC · xG

For: 1.60/g Against: 1.45/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Estac Troyes Win	@2.70	28.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.50	27.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Paris FC Win	@2.38	44.3%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.57	54.9%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.30	45.1%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.73	57.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.23	42.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.47	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Estac Troyes

Paris FC

1W streak

Last 5 WLWLW

On the road LW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 62% FTS 26%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 5.6%

0-3 3.7%

2-1 2.8%

1-3 1.9%

2-2 1.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 1.5 goals 85% @1.24 Betano
Paris FC over 0.5 goals 84% @1.23 Betano
Paris FC over 2.5 corners 84% @1.23 Betano
Estac Troyes over 0.5 goals 83% @1.27 Betano
Under 2.5 second half goals 82% @1.28 Betano
Estac Troyes under 6.5 corners 82% @1.28 Betano
Under 11.5 corners 81% @1.27 Unibet
Estac Troyes under 2 goals 81% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Estac Troyes or Paris FC (double chance) 80% @1.33 Bet365
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.38 Betano
Paris FC under 5.5 corners 78% @1.44 Unibet
Over 2 goals 77% @1.33 BetVictor

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Estac Troyes v Paris FC builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.32
2 Over 1.5 Goals 77% @ 1.29

@1.71 £10 returns £17.13

View full breakdown

Follow this match

Get our verified pick by email every time these teams play. Free, one-click unsubscribe.

More Ligue 1 Lens v Auxerre Sat 16:15 Le Mans v Stade Brestois 29 Sat 19:45 Toulouse v Lyon Sat 19:45 Nice v Lorient Sat 19:45 All fixtures this week ›

The record

69%

verified hit rate across 761 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

See every pick ›

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: FAQs

Who will win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Our model makes Paris FC the favourite with a 44.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Best available odds: Estac Troyes @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.50, Paris FC @ 2.38. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kick off?

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.9% probability.

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Paris FC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.