03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
45.5% |
62.5% |
17 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
50.6% |
60.6% |
10 pts under
|
| Lens Win |
55.9% |
64.1% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🚨
Auxerre have failed to score in 47% of matches
🔥
Auxerre are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Lens vs Auxerre
The model makes Lens 56% favourites here. Auxerre carry the 19% upset.
Lens slight edge (56%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Lens have taken 8 points from their last five; Auxerre have won three straight. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
Our verdict
Lens shade it at 56%, though Auxerre won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Lens with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickLens to win at @1.60. Model probability 56% vs implied 63%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Auxerre fail to score in 47% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
🎯
Better Chances
Lens come out at +0.8 a game on chance quality vs Auxerre's -0.5. A clear gap underneath the results
🔥
Travelling Hot
Auxerre bring a 3-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
Auxerre could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.2 goals a game against chance quality worth only 0.9. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lens come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.5. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Auxerre: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lens create chances worth 2.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Auxerre create 0.9 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Lens. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Auxerre are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.2 goals vs chance quality of 0.9). Both runs could cool off at once. Auxerre's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Lens are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Auxerre manage 2.2 (2.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 46%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. Two or more goals at @1.20 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 41% of Lens's home games and 47% of Auxerre's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Lens are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Auxerre, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Auxerre have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Lens but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.17 , which pays out if Lens win or draw, covers 81% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%) and 1-0 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Lens HT
2.05
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Auxerre HT
4.80
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Lens · xG
For: 2.12/g
Against: 1.32/g
📊 Auxerre · xG
For: 0.94/g
Against: 1.48/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.56/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Lens vs Auxerre Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Lens Win |
@1.60
|
55.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
25.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Auxerre Win |
@4.80
|
19.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
50.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.15
|
49.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.62
|
45.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.34
|
54.5% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.70
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.53
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.0%
1-0
5.9%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
3.6%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Lens under 8.5 corners
85%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.22
Betano
-
Auxerre under 5.5 corners
83%
@1.23
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
79%
@1.34
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Auxerre under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.33
Betano
-
Auxerre over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Lens over 4.5 corners
77%
@1.35
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →