03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
42.7% |
58.8% |
16 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
51.8% |
63.7% |
12 pts under
|
| Toulouse Win |
28.8% |
34.7% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 11.5 Match Corners
46% (model)
Corners: Toulouse avg 2.6 for/5.0 against, Lyon avg 8.4 for/6.6 against → expected 11.3 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
50% (model)
Cards: Toulouse avg 2.3/game, Lyon avg 1.4/game → expected 3.7 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
46% (model)
Fouls: Toulouse avg 12.4/game, Lyon avg 11.8/game → expected 24.2 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
22% (model)
Shots: Toulouse avg 9.3/game, Lyon avg 10.0/game → expected 19.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Toulouse vs Lyon: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
Toulouse 29%, the draw 28%, Lyon 43%. That's the shape of this one.
Lyon slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Toulouse are unbeaten in their last four; Lyon have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Lyon at just 43%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Lyon, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Cold Run
Lyon have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
▸ Form & goals
One thing to keep in mind about Toulouse. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.0. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lyon come out at +0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toulouse create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Lyon create 1.6 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Lyon look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Toulouse are scoring 1.5 goals a game off chances worth just 1.0. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Toulouse are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Lyon manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 43%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 41% of Toulouse's home games and 53% of Lyon's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Lyon have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-0 (7%).
First Half Result
-
Toulouse HT
3.60
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
Lyon HT
2.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Toulouse · xG
For: 1.01/g
Against: 1.39/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.39/g, possibly running hot
📊 Lyon · xG
For: 1.57/g
Against: 1.51/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Toulouse vs Lyon Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Toulouse Win |
@3.10
|
28.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
27.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Lyon Win |
@2.10
|
43.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
51.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
48.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.73
|
42.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.15
|
57.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.45
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
9.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
0-1
5.3%
0-2
3.9%
0-0
3.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Lyon under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
84%
@1.21
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Toulouse or Lyon (double chance)
82%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Toulouse under 6.5 corners
82%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Lyon over 3.5 corners
81%
@1.37
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Lyon or Draw (double chance)
78%
@1.39
Marathon Bet
-
Toulouse over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.33
Bet365
-
Lyon under 6.5 corners
78%
@1.39
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.38
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →