Who is favourite to win Nice vs Lorient?

Our model rates Nice as the favourite with a 43.4% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Nice 43.4%, draw 27.8%, Lorient 28.8%.

Where can I watch Nice vs Lorient?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Nice vs Lorient?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 41.1% probability and Under 2.5 goals 58.9%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45

Nice vs Lorient Predictions & Odds

N Nice 43.4% @2.05

VS Draw 27.8%

L Lorient 28.8% @3.25

Our model call Leans Nice, but only just A 43% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Nice 43% 2.05 Draw 28% 3.40 Lorient 29% 3.25

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 59% 2.08 Over 2.5 41% 1.80 Over 1.5 @1.25

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 48% 2.25 Yes 52% 1.62

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	41.1%	57.8%	17 pts under
Both Teams to Score	51.8%	63.3%	11 pts under
Nice Win	43.4%	48.8%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

01The read

Nice vs Lorient: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

Nice 43%, the draw 28%, Lorient 29%. That's the shape of this one.

Nice slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

Nice are winless in their last five; Lorient have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Nice at 43%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

▸ Form & goals

Interestingly, Nice look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.1 a game, but they're only converting 0.6 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lorient come out at +0.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.8. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Nice create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.8 a game on the balance. Lorient create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, Lorient look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Nice should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.1 a game but they're only getting 0.6 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Nice are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.4 a game over the last 5 vs 1.1 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Nice are scoring 0.6 a game (0.6 of those at home) and Lorient manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 41%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.

Both teams score in 53% of Nice's home games and 35% of Lorient's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Nice do it the hard way: only 0.6 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Lorient have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Nice but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.33 , which pays out if Nice win or draw, covers 71% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (13%) and 1-1 (13%).

First Half Result

Nice HT 2.62
Draw HT 2.30
Lorient HT 3.40

Team Intel

📊 Nice · xG

For: 1.05/g Against: 1.85/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.43/g, value possible

📊 Lorient · xG

For: 1.32/g Against: 1.30/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Nice vs Lorient Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Nice Win	@2.05	43.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.40	27.8%	William Hill
Match Result	Lorient Win	@3.25	28.8%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.62	51.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.25	48.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.80	41.1%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.08	58.9%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.42	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Nice

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLDDD

At home DD

Clean sheets 18% BTTS 59% FTS 32%

Lorient

1L streak

Last 5 LWDLW

On the road WD

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 53% FTS 29%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 12.7%

1-1 12.7%

0-0 9.1%

1-0 9.1%

0-2 8.9%

2-0 4.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Nice under 2.5 goals 84% @1.23 Betano
Lorient over 2.5 corners 84% @1.20 Betano
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.25 Betano
Nice under 7.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Over 1.5 goals 83% @1.27 Betano
Over 7.5 corners 83% @1.25 Betano
Under 12.5 corners 83% @1.26 Unibet
Nice over 3.5 corners 83% @1.30 Unibet
Nice or Lorient (double chance) 81% @1.31 Marathon Bet
Nice or Draw (double chance) 79% @1.35 Marathon Bet
Over 0.5 first half goals 77% @1.40 Betano
Lorient over 0.5 goals 77% @1.36 Pinnacle

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Nice v Lorient builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.31
2 Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.32

@1.74 £10 returns £17.40

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 761 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Nice vs Lorient: FAQs

Who will win Nice vs Lorient?

Our model makes Nice the favourite with a 43.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Nice vs Lorient?

Best available odds: Nice @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.40, Lorient @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Nice vs Lorient kick off?

Nice vs Lorient kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Nice vs Lorient?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.8% probability.

Nice vs Lorient prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Nice to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.