03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
41.1% |
57.8% |
17 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
51.8% |
63.3% |
11 pts under
|
| Draw |
27.5% |
31.9% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29
45% against 40%: the model can barely split Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29.
Le Mans slight edge (45%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Le Mans at @2.40 for this Ligue 1 tie, with Stade Brestois 29 out at @2.62.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Le Mans at just 45%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Le Mans, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
Le Mans average 0.0 goals per game and Stade Brestois 29 manage 1.0. Combined that's just 1.0. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
▸ Team news & context
Le Mans do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Le Mans but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.44 , which pays out if Le Mans win or draw, covers 72% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (22%) and 1-0 (22%).
First Half Result
-
Le Mans HT
2.80
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
Stade Brestois 29 HT
3.10
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Stade Brestois 29 · xG
For: 1.11/g
Against: 1.72/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Le Mans Win |
@2.40
|
44.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
27.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Stade Brestois 29 Win |
@2.62
|
39.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
51.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
48.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
41.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.12
|
58.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.42
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-0
22.3%
1-0
22.3%
0-1
11.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-0
11.2%
0-2
2.8%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Stade Brestois 29 over 2.5 corners
84%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Le Mans over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Stade Brestois 29 under 2 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Stade Brestois 29 under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.42
Unibet
-
Stade Brestois 29 over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.28
Betano
-
Le Mans under 6.5 corners
81%
@1.33
Betano
-
Le Mans or Stade Brestois 29 (double chance)
80%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
-
Le Mans under 2 goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Le Mans over 3.5 corners
79%
@1.44
Unibet
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