Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our model rates Monaco as the favourite with a 48.2% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Le Havre 24.5%, draw 27.3%, Monaco 48.2%.

Where can I watch Le Havre vs Monaco?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 46.8% probability and Under 2.5 goals 53.2%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:15

Le Havre vs Monaco Predictions & Odds

L Le Havre 24.5% @3.40

VS Draw 27.3%

M Monaco 48.2% @1.95

Our model call Leans Monaco, but only just A 48% call, draw at 27%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Le Havre 24% 3.40 Draw 27% 3.60 Monaco 48% 1.95

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 53% 2.45 Over 2.5 47% 1.57 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 2.50 Yes 55% 1.50

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	46.8%	64.5%	18 pts under
Both Teams to Score	55.3%	68.0%	13 pts under
Le Havre Win	24.5%	32.8%	8 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Bragging Rights at Stake: Le Havre vs Monaco

Le Havre 25%, the draw 27%, Monaco 48%. That's the shape of this one.

Monaco slight edge (48%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

Le Havre have taken six points from their last five; Monaco have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Monaco edge it at 48% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

😶

Blunt Attack Le Havre fail to score in 41% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem

📉

Cold Run Monaco have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Monaco's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

Monaco could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.7. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Monaco come out at +0.2 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Le Havre create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Monaco create 1.7 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.2. On the quality of chances, Monaco look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Monaco are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.7). Both runs could cool off at once.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Le Havre are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Monaco manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 59% of Le Havre's home games and 71% of Monaco's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

Monaco have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 0-1 (5%).

First Half Result

Le Havre HT 3.50
Draw HT 2.40
Monaco HT 2.45

Team Intel

📊 Le Havre · xG

For: 1.21/g Against: 1.49/g

📊 Monaco · xG

For: 1.65/g Against: 1.50/g

⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.35/g, possibly running hot

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Le Havre vs Monaco Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Le Havre Win	@3.40	24.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.60	27.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Monaco Win	@1.95	48.2%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.50	55.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.50	44.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.57	46.8%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.45	53.2%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.38	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.60	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Le Havre

1W streak

Last 5 WLDDD

At home LD

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 50% FTS 41%

Monaco

2L streak

Last 5 LLWDD

On the road LWD

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 65% FTS 21%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 7.5%

0-1 4.6%

1-3 4.3%

2-3 4.0%

0-2 3.9%

0-3 2.2%

1-4 1.8%

2-4 1.7%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Monaco under 7.5 corners 84% @1.20 Betano
Le Havre or Monaco (double chance) 83% @1.28 Bet365
Under 2 first half goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Over 2 goals 81% @1.26 BetVictor
Under 4 goals 81% @1.28 BetVictor
Monaco over 1 goals 81% @1.23 Marathon Bet
Monaco over 3.5 corners 81% @1.30 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 80% @1.32 Betano
Under 2.5 second half goals 80% @1.33 Betano
Monaco or Draw (double chance) 80% @1.32 1xBet
Le Havre over 2.5 corners 80% @1.26 Betano
Monaco under 2.5 goals 79% @1.33 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Le Havre v Monaco builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 78% @ 1.28
2 Under 3.5 Goals 60% @ 1.66
3 Both Teams to Score 55% @ 1.81

@3.83 £10 returns £38.30

View full breakdown

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The record

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Le Havre vs Monaco: FAQs

Who will win Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our model makes Monaco the favourite with a 48.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Le Havre vs Monaco?

Best available odds: Le Havre @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.60, Monaco @ 1.95. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Le Havre vs Monaco kick off?

Le Havre vs Monaco kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 16:15 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.3% probability.

Le Havre vs Monaco prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Monaco to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.