Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lille?

Our model rates Lille as the favourite with a 54.8% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Angers 17.5%, draw 27.7%, Lille 54.8%.

Where can I watch Angers vs Lille?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Angers vs Lille?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 37.3% probability and Under 2.5 goals 62.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Sunday 23 August 2026, 14:00

Angers vs Lille Predictions & Odds

A Angers 17.5% @4.80

VS Draw 27.7%

L Lille 54.8% @1.67

Our model call Leans Lille, but only just A 55% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Angers 18% 4.80 Draw 28% 3.60 Lille 55% 1.67

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 63% 1.92 Over 2.5 37% 2.00 Over 1.5 @1.33

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 55% 1.85 Yes 45% 1.91

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	37.3%	52.6%	15 pts under
Both Teams to Score	45.3%	54.1%	9 pts under
Lille Win	54.8%	60.6%	6 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Angers and Lille Separated by Fine Margins

The model makes Lille 55% favourites here. Angers carry the 18% upset.

Lille slight edge (55%) | Lower-scoring game likely (63%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Angers are winless in their last five; Lille have taken 8 points from their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Lille edge it at 55% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

🎯

Chances Favour Away Lille come out at +0.9 a game on chance quality against Angers's -0.8. The visitors are creating far better chances

▸ Form & goals

Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Angers average just 0.8 goals per game and Lille manage 0.6. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. The gap in chance quality is clear: Lille come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.8. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Angers create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them -0.8 a game on the balance. Lille create 1.5 (giving up 0.6) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, Lille look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Angers average 0.8 goals per game and Lille manage 0.6. Combined that's just 1.4. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.

Clean sheets are a feature here. Both teams score in only 41% of Angers's home games and 29% of Lille's away fixtures.

▸ Team news & context

Lille prefer to keep things tight (0.6 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Angers against this setup.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (18%) and 0-2 (11%).

First Half Result

Angers HT 5.00
Draw HT 2.20
Lille HT 2.20

Team Intel

📊 Angers · xG

For: 0.98/g Against: 1.78/g

📊 Lille · xG

For: 1.52/g Against: 0.60/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Angers vs Lille Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Angers Win	@4.80	17.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.60	27.7%	William Hill
Match Result	Lille Win	@1.67	54.8%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.91	45.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.85	54.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.00	37.3%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.92	62.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.32	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Angers

2 unbeaten

Last 5 DDLLD

At home DLD

Clean sheets 29% BTTS 41% FTS 35%

Lille

1L streak

Last 5 LWDWD

On the road WW

Clean sheets 38% BTTS 38% FTS 29%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 17.9%

0-2 10.8%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Angers under 5.5 corners 85% @1.19 Unibet
Over 0.5 second half goals 83% @1.29 William Hill
Angers or Lille (double chance) 83% @1.29 1xBet
Angers under 1.5 goals 83% @1.25 Betano
Lille under 7.5 corners 83% @1.25 Unibet
Under 11.5 corners 81% @1.28 Unibet
Lille over 3.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Lille under 2.5 goals 80% @1.28 Betano
Over 1.5 goals 79% @1.33 Bet365
Under 3.5 goals 79% @1.32 Unibet
Under 2 second half goals 79% @1.27 Marathon Bet
Lille over 1 goals 78% @1.28 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Angers v Lille builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 78% @ 1.28
2 Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.31

@1.67 £10 returns £16.74

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 761 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Angers vs Lille: FAQs

Who will win Angers vs Lille?

Our model makes Lille the favourite with a 54.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Angers vs Lille?

Best available odds: Angers @ 4.80, Draw @ 3.60, Lille @ 1.67. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Angers vs Lille kick off?

Angers vs Lille kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:00 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Angers vs Lille?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.3% probability.

Angers vs Lille prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Lille to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.