01The read
Analysing Doncaster vs Middlesbrough: Who Wins?
The model makes Middlesbrough 57% favourites here. Doncaster carry the 19% upset.
Doncaster have taken six points from their last five; Middlesbrough have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickMiddlesbrough to win at @1.62. Model probability 57% vs implied 62%. The market is 5pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Doncaster's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Doncaster are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Middlesbrough manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.3 goals when they meet, with 4 of the last 6 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 6 meetings: Doncaster have won 1, Middlesbrough 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 6 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Middlesbrough 0-4 Doncaster, Doncaster 3-5 Middlesbrough, Doncaster 0-0 Middlesbrough.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Doncaster HT
4.60
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Middlesbrough HT
2.05
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Middlesbrough · xG
For: 2.00/g
Against: 1.23/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.60/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Doncaster Win |
@4.50
|
18.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.00
|
24.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Middlesbrough Win |
@1.62
|
56.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
51.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.10
|
48.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.62
|
60.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.26
|
39.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.18
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.52
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough Head to Head
1 Home Wins
2 Draws
3 Away Wins
3.3
Avg Goals
2/6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2025-08-12
Doncaster 4-0 Middlesbrough
2024-07-27
Doncaster 3-5 Middlesbrough
2014-02-01
Doncaster 0-0 Middlesbrough
2013-10-25
Doncaster 0-4 Middlesbrough
2012-04-17
Doncaster 0-0 Middlesbrough
2011-11-01
Doncaster 1-3 Middlesbrough
Full Doncaster vs Middlesbrough head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.4%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.1%
2-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
0-4
1.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 first half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.24
BetVictor
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Doncaster under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
76%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
-
Middlesbrough under 7.5 corners
74%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals
74%
@1.42
Betano
-
Doncaster over 2.5 corners
72%
@1.38
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →