VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions & Odds
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Tricky away day for Borussia Dortmund (5th, 3 pts) as they travel to VfB Stuttgart (18th, 0 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Season-long, Borussia Dortmund average 3.0 points per game compared to VfB Stuttgart's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Borussia Dortmund come out at +1.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
VfB Stuttgart create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Borussia Dortmund create 2.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +1.0. On the quality of chances, Borussia Dortmund look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. VfB Stuttgart are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Borussia Dortmund manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 71%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.6 goals when they meet, with 6 of the last 10 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. VfB Stuttgart create chances worth 1.9 a game and Borussia Dortmund 2.2. Combined, that's 4.1 a game from open play alone.
Both teams score in 41% of VfB Stuttgart's home games and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
VfB Stuttgart need points desperately. Sitting 18th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Borussia Dortmund are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides. Don't underestimate the visitors. Borussia Dortmund create chances worth 2.2 a game and VfB Stuttgart give up chances worth 1.8 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
In the last 10 meetings: VfB Stuttgart have won 5, Borussia Dortmund 3, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.6 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart, Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart, VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Most likely scorelines: 0-3 (9%) and 0-4 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | VfB Stuttgart Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Borussia Dortmund Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Full VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head history →
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.7% probability.