Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions & Odds
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A Bundesliga meeting between Borussia Mönchengladbach (16th, 0 pts) and FSV Mainz 05 (10th, 1 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Season-long, FSV Mainz 05 average 1.0 points per game compared to Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. One thing to keep in mind about Borussia Mönchengladbach. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.1. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. FSV Mainz 05 are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 2.1 against 1.3 actual goals). They look due a few more. The gap in chance quality is clear: FSV Mainz 05 come out at +0.7 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.6. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for FSV Mainz 05: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Borussia Mönchengladbach create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. FSV Mainz 05 create 2.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, FSV Mainz 05 look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Borussia Mönchengladbach are scoring 1.5 goals a game off chances worth just 1.1. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. FSV Mainz 05 are creating chances worth 2.1 a game but only finishing 1.3. the underlying performance is better than the results show. FSV Mainz 05's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Borussia Mönchengladbach average 1.5 goals per game and FSV Mainz 05 manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.8. We make it only 24% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Borussia Mönchengladbach shut the door in 38% of their games and FSV Mainz 05 draw a blank in 29% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 together create chances worth 3.2 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 35% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's home games and 65% of FSV Mainz 05's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Don't underestimate the visitors. FSV Mainz 05 create chances worth 2.1 a game and Borussia Mönchengladbach give up chances worth 1.7 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 0-2 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Borussia Mönchengladbach Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | FSV Mainz 05 Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.