Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Predictions & Odds
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Hamburger SV (14th, 0 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form 1. FC Köln (6th, 3 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Season-long, 1. FC Köln average 3.0 points per game compared to Hamburger SV's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: 1. FC Köln come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -1.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hamburger SV create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 2.3), leaving them -1.0 a game on the balance. 1. FC Köln create 1.9 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, 1. FC Köln look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals look likely here. Hamburger SV average 1.8 per game (1.8 at home) and 1. FC Köln chip in with 3.0 (3.0 away). Defensively, Hamburger SV concede 2.0 at home and 1. FC Köln leak 2.0 on the road. We make it 64% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Hamburger SV's home games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's away matches.
Hamburger SV are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at 1. FC Köln, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. 1. FC Köln have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. 1. FC Köln create chances worth 1.9 a game and Hamburger SV give up chances worth 2.3 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (7%) and 2-2 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hamburger SV Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | 1. FC Köln Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.3% probability.