Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?

Our model rates Bologna as the favourite with a 40.0% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Bologna 40.0%, draw 28.6%, Lazio 31.4%.

Where can I watch Bologna vs Lazio?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Bologna vs Lazio?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 34.1% probability and Under 2.5 goals 65.9%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 766 picks Serie A Monday 24 August 2026, 17:30

Bologna vs Lazio Predictions & Odds

B Bologna 40.0% @2.10

VS Draw 28.6%

L Lazio 31.4% @3.50

Our model call Leans Bologna, but only just A 40% call, draw at 29%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Bologna 40% 2.10 Draw 29% 3.10 Lazio 31% 3.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 66% 1.74 Over 2.5 34% 2.20 Over 1.5 @1.40

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 55% 1.85 Yes 45% 1.91

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	34.1%	47.6%	14 pts under
Both Teams to Score	45.3%	53.5%	8 pts under
Bologna Win	40.0%	47.6%	8 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 9.5 Match Corners 43% (model) Corners: Bologna avg 4.0 for/4.6 against, Lazio avg 2.7 for/7.0 against → expected 9.1 match corners
Over 3.5 Match Cards 48% (model) Cards: Bologna avg 0.6/game, Lazio avg 3.0/game → expected 3.6 match cards
Over 24.5 Match Fouls 45% (model) Fouls: Bologna avg 12.4/game, Lazio avg 11.7/game → expected 24.1 match fouls
Over 26.5 Match Shots 43% (model) Shots: Bologna avg 11.8/game, Lazio avg 14.0/game → expected 25.8 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

🚨 Lazio have failed to score in 45% of matches

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Bologna and Lazio Separated by Fine Margins

The model makes Bologna 40% favourites here. Lazio carry the 31% upset.

Bologna slight edge (40%) | Lower-scoring game likely (66%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

Bologna have taken 8 points from their last five; Lazio have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Serie A tie.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Bologna at 40%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

😶

Goal Shy Lazio fail to score in 45% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often

▸ Form & goals

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Bologna create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Lazio create 1.2 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Bologna average 1.2 goals per game and Lazio manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 34% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.

Clean sheets are a feature here. Both teams score in only 32% of Bologna's home games and 16% of Lazio's away fixtures.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Bologna but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.30 , which pays out if Bologna win or draw, covers 69% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 1-0 (8%).

First Half Result

Bologna HT 2.70
Draw HT 2.00
Lazio HT 4.20

Team Intel

📊 Bologna · xG

For: 1.07/g Against: 1.18/g

📊 Lazio · xG

For: 1.18/g Against: 1.08/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Bologna vs Lazio Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Bologna Win	@2.10	40.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.10	28.6%	William Hill
Match Result	Lazio Win	@3.50	31.4%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.91	45.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.85	54.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.20	34.1%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.74	65.9%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.10	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@4.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.26	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Bologna

4 unbeaten

Last 5 DWWDL

At home DDL

Clean sheets 32% BTTS 45% FTS 29%

Lazio

1W streak

Last 5 WLLWD

On the road LW

Clean sheets 39% BTTS 29% FTS 45%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-1 11.0%

1-0 7.6%

0-1 7.0%

2-0 6.0%

0-2 5.1%

0-0 4.8%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Lazio under 5.5 corners 84% @1.19 Unibet
Under 3.5 goals 83% @1.26 Betano
Under 2 second half goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Bologna under 2 goals 82% @1.22 Marathon Bet
Over 0.5 second half goals 81% @1.30 10Bet
Over 6.5 corners 81% @1.28 Betano
Bologna under 6.5 corners 81% @1.33 Unibet
Bologna or Draw (double chance) 80% @1.33 1xBet
Bologna over 0.5 goals 80% @1.28 Bet365
Under 10.5 corners 79% @1.34 Unibet
Bologna or Lazio (double chance) 78% @1.37 Marathon Bet
Lazio under 1.5 goals 78% @1.32 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Bologna v Lazio builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Bologna or Draw 77% @ 1.29
2 Over 1.5 Goals 72% @ 1.38

@1.78 £10 returns £17.85

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 766 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Bologna vs Lazio: FAQs

Who will win Bologna vs Lazio?

Our model makes Bologna the favourite with a 40.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Bologna vs Lazio?

Best available odds: Bologna @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.10, Lazio @ 3.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?

Bologna vs Lazio kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.3% probability.

Bologna vs Lazio prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Bologna to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.