03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
38.9% |
54.3% |
15 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
48.6% |
57.1% |
9 pts under
|
| AC Milan Win |
51.3% |
58.1% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
28% (model)
Corners: Torino avg 3.0 for/4.0 against, AC Milan avg 3.4 for/3.8 against → expected 7.1 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
40% (model)
Cards: Torino avg 0.7/game, AC Milan avg 1.6/game → expected 2.3 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
48% (model)
Fouls: Torino avg 11.7/game, AC Milan avg 10.8/game → expected 22.5 match fouls
-
Over 24.5 Match Shots
50% (model)
Shots: Torino avg 13.0/game, AC Milan avg 11.7/game → expected 24.7 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Torino vs AC Milan: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
The model makes AC Milan 51% favourites here. Torino carry the 22% upset.
AC Milan slight edge (51%) | Lower-scoring game likely (61%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Torino have taken five points from their last five; AC Milan have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Serie A tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: AC Milan at 51%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
AC Milan are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.3 against 1.0 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Torino create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. AC Milan create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. AC Milan are creating chances worth 1.3 a game but only finishing 1.0. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Torino average 1.2 goals per game and AC Milan manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams score in 63% of Torino's home games and 42% of AC Milan's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (10%) and 0-2 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Torino HT
4.40
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
AC Milan HT
2.30
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Torino · xG
For: 1.61/g
Against: 1.36/g
📊 AC Milan · xG
For: 1.27/g
Against: 1.29/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.37/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Torino vs AC Milan Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Torino Win |
@4.20
|
22.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
26.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
AC Milan Win |
@1.75
|
51.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
51.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
38.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.97
|
61.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
10.3%
0-2
6.4%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Torino under 5.5 corners
83%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Torino or AC Milan (double chance)
83%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
AC Milan under 2.5 goals
82%
@1.26
Betano
-
Over 6.5 corners
81%
@1.26
Betano
-
AC Milan under 6.5 corners
81%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Torino under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Under 2 second half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
AC Milan over 1 goals
78%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Under 10.5 corners
78%
@1.34
Unibet
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Torino over 2.5 corners
76%
@1.34
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →