03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
38.9% |
54.6% |
16 pts under
|
| AS Roma Win |
56.6% |
66.7% |
10 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
45.3% |
52.9% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
46% (model)
Corners: AS Roma avg 5.8 for/5.0 against, Fiorentina avg 2.0 for/4.0 against → expected 8.4 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
53% (model)
Cards: AS Roma avg 1.8/game, Fiorentina avg 2.0/game → expected 3.8 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
49% (model)
Fouls: AS Roma avg 11.2/game, Fiorentina avg 11.3/game → expected 22.5 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
23% (model)
Shots: AS Roma avg 11.3/game, Fiorentina avg 8.0/game → expected 19.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🔥
AS Roma are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
Neighbours Collide: AS Roma and Fiorentina Separated by Fine Margins
AS Roma 57%, the draw 25%, Fiorentina 18%. That's the shape of this one.
AS Roma slight edge (57%) | Lower-scoring game likely (61%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
AS Roma have won five straight; Fiorentina have taken six points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Serie A tie.
Our verdict
AS Roma shade it at 57%, though Fiorentina won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing AS Roma with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickAS Roma to win at @1.57. Model probability 57% vs implied 64%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
AS Roma keep clean sheets in 47% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🔥
Chances Flowing
AS Roma creating chances worth 2.3 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
🔥
Hot Streak
AS Roma have won 5 in a row. Momentum is real
▸ Form & goals
One thing to keep in mind about AS Roma. They're scoring 2.6 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.7. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. The gap in chance quality is clear: AS Roma come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. AS Roma have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.3 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.7. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
AS Roma create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 0.9), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Fiorentina create 1.1 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour AS Roma. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. AS Roma are scoring 2.6 goals a game off chances worth just 1.7. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. AS Roma are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.3 a game over the last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
AS Roma average 2.6 goals per game and Fiorentina manage 0.7. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%. Two or more goals at @1.28 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 26% of AS Roma's home games and 53% of Fiorentina's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
AS Roma are in great shape right now, banging in 2.6 a game and only letting in 0.4. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like AS Roma but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.14 , which pays out if AS Roma win or draw, covers 82% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (17%) and 2-0 (16%).
First Half Result
-
AS Roma HT
2.10
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Fiorentina HT
5.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 AS Roma · xG
For: 1.68/g
Against: 0.92/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.42/g, possibly running hot
📊 Fiorentina · xG
For: 1.05/g
Against: 1.33/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
AS Roma vs Fiorentina Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
AS Roma Win |
@1.57
|
56.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.90
|
25.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Fiorentina Win |
@5.50
|
18.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.91
|
45.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
54.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
38.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.98
|
61.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.37
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
17.4%
2-0
15.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
AS Roma or Fiorentina (double chance)
85%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
AS Roma over 3.5 corners
84%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
83%
@1.27
Unibet
-
AS Roma over 1 goals
81%
@1.23
Marathon Bet
-
AS Roma under 7.5 corners
81%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Betano
-
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners
79%
@1.30
Unibet
-
AS Roma under 2.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
76%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
76%
@1.37
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
75%
@1.42
Betano
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