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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 56.0% | 67.1% | 11 pts under |
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 43.9% | 49.3% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59.9% | 63.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: Union St. Gilloise's attack against Bodo/Glimt's back line.
Union St. Gilloise welcome Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Union St. Gilloise will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Bodo/Glimt travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Union St. Gilloise at 44%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Union St. Gilloise are the marginal favourites at 44%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Bodo/Glimt will fancy their chances and the draw at 26% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 60%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.20 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Union St. Gilloise Win | @2.05 | 43.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Bodo/Glimt Win | @3.00 | 30.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 56.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 44.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 59.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.30 | 40.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.53 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite with a 43.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Union St. Gilloise @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.40, Bodo/Glimt @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 56.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Union St. Gilloise to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.