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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 44.7% | 53.8% | 9 pts under |
| Levski Sofia Win | 55.3% | 62.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.2% | 53.5% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A Champions League fixture between Levski Sofia and Kairat Almaty. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Levski Sofia will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Kairat Almaty travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards Levski Sofia (55%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Kairat Almaty have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our PickLevski Sofia to win at @1.62. Model probability 55% vs implied 62%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Levski Sofia are the marginal favourites at 55%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Kairat Almaty will fancy their chances and the draw at 26% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 48%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.33 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Levski Sofia Win | @1.62 | 55.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Kairat Almaty Win | @5.00 | 19.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @2.00 | 44.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.73 | 55.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 48.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.80 | 51.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.35 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.30 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Levski Sofia the favourite with a 55.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Levski Sofia @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.40, Kairat Almaty @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 18:30 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.7% probability.
Our top prediction is Levski Sofia to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.