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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb Win | 71.7% | 88.5% | 17 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63.1% | 67.1% | 4 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 42.1% | 42.0% | 0 pts over |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Dinamo Zagreb host Kauno Žalgiris.
A Champions League fixture between Dinamo Zagreb and Kauno Žalgiris. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Dinamo Zagreb will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Kauno Žalgiris travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This one's fairly decisive: Dinamo Zagreb at 72%. When form, stats and the model all line up this strongly, the favourite is the clear call.
Our PickDinamo Zagreb to win at @1.15. Model probability 72% vs implied 87%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
The bookmakers have Dinamo Zagreb as clear favourites for this Champions League clash, pricing them at @1.15 which implies a 72% win probability. Kauno Žalgiris come in at @15.00 (13%) with the draw at @6.50 (15%). The odds suggest this should be straightforward for the hosts, though no result in the lower leagues is ever guaranteed.
The bookmakers expect goals in this one. Three or more is priced at @1.53, and we make it 63%. Both sides will be looking to attack, and the pricing points towards at least three goals. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.17 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Dinamo Zagreb Win | @1.15 | 71.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.50 | 15.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Kauno Žalgiris Win | @15.00 | 12.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @2.38 | 42.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.53 | 57.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 63.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.51 | 36.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.90 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.62 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite with a 71.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Dinamo Zagreb @ 1.15, Draw @ 6.50, Kauno Žalgiris @ 15.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 42.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Dinamo Zagreb to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.