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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 49.0% | 58.8% | 10 pts under |
| Ararat-Armenia Win | 28.8% | 35.7% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47.7% | 52.9% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Ararat-Armenia know what's at stake, and so do Celje.
Ararat-Armenia welcome Celje in the Champions League. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Ararat-Armenia will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Celje travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Celje at 43%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Celje are the marginal favourites at 43%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Ararat-Armenia will fancy their chances and the draw at 28% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 48%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.28 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ararat-Armenia Win | @2.80 | 28.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Celje Win | @2.38 | 43.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 47.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.88 | 52.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Celje the favourite with a 43.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Ararat-Armenia @ 2.80, Draw @ 3.10, Celje @ 2.38. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 17:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Celje to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.