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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 47.6% | 57.1% | 10 pts under |
| Olympiakos Piraeus Win | 58.5% | 66.7% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.6% | 59.9% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Olympiakos Piraeus welcome NEC Nijmegen.
Olympiakos Piraeus take on NEC Nijmegen in the Champions League. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Olympiakos Piraeus will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while NEC Nijmegen travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus shade it at 59%, though NEC Nijmegen won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Olympiakos Piraeus with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our PickOlympiakos Piraeus to win at @1.50. Model probability 59% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Olympiakos Piraeus are the marginal favourites at 59%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. NEC Nijmegen will fancy their chances and the draw at 25% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 54%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.22 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Olympiakos Piraeus Win | @1.50 | 58.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 25.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | NEC Nijmegen Win | @5.50 | 16.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 53.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 46.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite with a 58.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Olympiakos Piraeus @ 1.50, Draw @ 3.90, NEC Nijmegen @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs NEC Nijmegen kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Olympiakos Piraeus to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.