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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52.7% | 58.8% | 6 pts under |
| FK Crvena Zvezda Win | 50.5% | 55.2% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Hapoel Beer Sheva know what's at stake, and so do FK Crvena Zvezda.
A Champions League fixture between Hapoel Beer Sheva and FK Crvena Zvezda. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Hapoel Beer Sheva will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while FK Crvena Zvezda travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. FK Crvena Zvezda edge it at 51% but a draw (26%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
FK Crvena Zvezda are the marginal favourites at 51%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Hapoel Beer Sheva will fancy their chances and the draw at 26% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 53%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.22 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hapoel Beer Sheva Win | @3.60 | 23.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 26.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FK Crvena Zvezda Win | @1.85 | 50.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.09 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes FK Crvena Zvezda the favourite with a 50.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Hapoel Beer Sheva @ 3.60, Draw @ 3.50, FK Crvena Zvezda @ 1.85. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 18:30 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is FK Crvena Zvezda to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.