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Toronto FC are flying. Charlotte arrive in their path.
A MLS fixture between Toronto FC and Charlotte. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Toronto FC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Charlotte travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.65. Model probability 61% vs implied 61%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Toronto FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Toronto FC create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Charlotte create 1.1 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Toronto FC are scoring 1.1 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Charlotte manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.2 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Toronto FC Win | @2.25 | 36.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 21.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Charlotte Win | @2.62 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 55.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 44.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 61.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.27 | 38.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.52 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Charlotte the favourite with a 39.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Toronto FC @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.70, Charlotte @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Toronto FC vs Charlotte kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.