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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Form, fitness, fine margins. FC Cincinnati and New York City FC meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
FC Cincinnati welcome New York City FC in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Cincinnati will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while New York City FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.40. Model probability 69% vs implied 71%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. FC Cincinnati come in on a W-L-W-W-D run, New York City FC have gone D-W-W-L-D, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. FC Cincinnati's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
FC Cincinnati create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. New York City FC create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. On the quality of chances, New York City FC look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. A worry for FC Cincinnati: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.0 a game, well below their 1.4 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. FC Cincinnati are scoring 1.4 a game (1.5 of those at home) and New York City FC manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. FC Cincinnati score in 79% of their games and New York City FC in 72%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Cincinnati Win | @2.05 | 44.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 20.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @2.88 | 37.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.40 | 69.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.75 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 67.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 33.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes FC Cincinnati the favourite with a 44.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: FC Cincinnati @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.90, New York City FC @ 2.88. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.