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Tough night ahead for New York Red Bulls. Nashville SC arrive as the bookies' favourite.
New York Red Bulls welcome Nashville SC in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
J. Hall has been New York Red Bulls's spearhead, with 9 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances, averaging 1.06 shots on target per game. S. Surridge has been Nashville SC's main threat, with 11 goals and 0 assists in 12 appearances, averaging 1.42 shots on target per game.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 67% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
New York Red Bulls will be looking to make home advantage count (W10 D3 L4 at home). Nashville SC's away record reads W5 D3 L11. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Nashville SC have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. A concern for Nashville SC: they're giving up chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York Red Bulls create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Nashville SC create 1.8 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Nashville SC look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Nashville SC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.1 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. New York Red Bulls are scoring 1.4 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Nashville SC manage 1.6 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 68%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 67%. New York Red Bulls score in 74% of their games and Nashville SC in 81%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @2.62 | 29.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.80 | 22.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Nashville SC Win | @2.20 | 45.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 67.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.60 | 32.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 67.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.60 | 32.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.67 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Nashville SC the favourite with a 45.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: New York Red Bulls @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.80, Nashville SC @ 2.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.