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Philadelphia Union are flying. Inter Miami CF arrive in their path.
Philadelphia Union welcome Inter Miami CF in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Philadelphia Union will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Inter Miami CF travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.36. Model probability 68% vs implied 74%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Philadelphia Union's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Inter Miami CF could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.8 goals a game against chance quality worth only 2.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Philadelphia Union create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Inter Miami CF create 2.4 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +1.2. On the quality of chances, Inter Miami CF look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Inter Miami CF are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.8 goals vs chance quality of 2.4). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals look likely here. Philadelphia Union average 1.7 per game (2.1 at home) and Inter Miami CF chip in with 2.8 (2.8 away). Defensively, Philadelphia Union concede 0.9 at home and Inter Miami CF leak 1.8 on the road. We make it 68% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Philadelphia Union create chances worth 1.7 a game and Inter Miami CF 2.4. Combined, that's 4.2 a game from open play alone.
Inter Miami CF have goals in them (2.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.8 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Philadelphia Union Win | @2.45 | 46.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 22.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Inter Miami CF Win | @2.30 | 44.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.36 | 68.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 31.7% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite with a 46.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Philadelphia Union @ 2.45, Draw @ 4.00, Inter Miami CF @ 2.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.