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A test of nerve as much as quality when Sporting Kansas City welcome St. Louis City.
A MLS fixture between Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sporting Kansas City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while St. Louis City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 67% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Interestingly, Sporting Kansas City look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.7 a game, but they're only converting 1.4 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sporting Kansas City create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 2.6), leaving them -0.9 a game on the balance. St. Louis City create 2.0 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of +0.2. On the quality of chances, St. Louis City look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Sporting Kansas City should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.7 a game but they're only getting 1.4 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. A worry for Sporting Kansas City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.7 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sporting Kansas City are scoring 1.4 a game (1.5 of those at home) and St. Louis City manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 67%. Sporting Kansas City score in 74% of their games and St. Louis City in 92%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Sporting Kansas City create chances worth 1.7 a game and St. Louis City 2.0. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sporting Kansas City Win | @3.10 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 22.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @1.95 | 50.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 67.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.50 | 32.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.65 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.70 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes St. Louis City the favourite with a 50.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sporting Kansas City @ 3.10, Draw @ 3.90, St. Louis City @ 1.95. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 01:00 in the MLS.