Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Our model rates Sheffield Utd as the favourite with a 45.1% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Sheffield Utd 45.1%, draw 28.1%, Birmingham 39.0%.

Where can I watch Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 37.3% probability and Under 2.5 goals 62.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

68% verified · 746 picks Championship Saturday 15 August 2026, 17:30

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham Predictions & Odds

S Sheffield Utd 45.1% @2.50

VS Draw 28.1%

B Birmingham 39.0% @2.80

Our model call Leans Sheffield Utd, but only just A 45% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Sheffield Utd 45% 2.50 Draw 28% 3.00 Birmingham 39% 2.80

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 63% 1.83 Over 2.5 37% 2.00 Over 1.5 @1.30

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 51% 1.95 Yes 49% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	37.3%	51.8%	15 pts under
Both Teams to Score	48.6%	57.8%	9 pts under
Draw	28.1%	33.3%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Sheffield Utd and Birmingham Separated by Fine Margins

The model makes Sheffield Utd 45% favourites here. Birmingham carry the 39% upset.

Sheffield Utd slight edge (45%) | Lower-scoring game likely (63%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

The bookmakers open Sheffield Utd at @2.50 for this Championship tie, with Birmingham out at @2.80.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Sheffield Utd at 45%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

Our model spots value here: Sheffield Utd to win at @2.50 (our model: 45%, bookmakers imply: 40%). A 5% edge over the market.

Key facts

🔥

Chances Flowing Sheffield Utd creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will

▸ Form & goals

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Sheffield Utd create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Birmingham create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Sheffield Utd average 0.0 goals per game and Birmingham manage 1.5. Combined that's just 1.5. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.

Both teams score in 70% of Sheffield Utd's home games and 48% of Birmingham's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Sheffield Utd do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Birmingham prefer to keep things tight (0.7 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Sheffield Utd against this setup.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Sheffield Utd HT 3.00
Draw HT 2.15
Birmingham HT 3.25

Team Intel

📊 Sheffield Utd · xG

For: 1.74/g Against: 1.61/g

📊 Birmingham · xG

For: 1.23/g Against: 1.19/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Sheffield Utd Win	@2.50	45.1%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.00	28.1%	William Hill
Match Result	Birmingham Win	@2.80	39.0%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	48.6%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.95	51.4%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.00	37.3%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.83	62.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.30	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.33	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Sheffield Utd

Clean sheets 22% BTTS 57% FTS 24%

Birmingham

1W streak 5 unbeaten

Last 5 WDWWD

On the road WDD

Clean sheets 22% BTTS 57% FTS 24%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-0 11.3%

2-0 1.9%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Birmingham under 6.5 corners 85% @1.29 Unibet
Sheffield Utd over 3.5 corners 84% @1.30 Unibet
Under 12.5 corners 83% @1.30 Unibet
Over 8 corners 83% @1.20 1xBet
Over 0.5 second half goals 82% @1.28 Betano
Under 2 second half goals 81% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Under 3.5 goals 80% @1.33 Bet365
Birmingham under 6 corners 80% @1.25 1xBet
Sheffield Utd over 0.5 goals 79% @1.30 Betano
Over 1.5 goals 79% @1.34 Betano
Sheffield Utd over 4 corners 79% @1.27 1xBet
Sheffield Utd or Birmingham (double chance) 78% @1.36 Bet365

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Sheffield Utd v Birmingham builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 74% @ 1.35
2 Over 1.5 Goals 75% @ 1.34

@1.81 £10 returns £18.07

View full breakdown

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The record

68%

verified hit rate across 746 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham: FAQs

Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Our model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite with a 45.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Best available odds: Sheffield Utd @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.00, Birmingham @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham kick off?

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.6% probability.

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Sheffield Utd to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.