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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town Win | 31.3% | 40.0% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.7% | 54.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Ipswich Town and Sunderland meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A Premier League fixture between Ipswich Town and Sunderland. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Ipswich Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sunderland travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Sunderland at 42%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Interestingly, Ipswich Town look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.6 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Ipswich Town come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich Town create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Sunderland create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Ipswich Town. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Ipswich Town should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.6 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Ipswich Town are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Sunderland manage 1.1 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 52% of Ipswich Town's home games and 47% of Sunderland's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ipswich Town Win | @2.70 | 31.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sunderland Win | @2.50 | 41.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.80 | 49.3% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sunderland the favourite with a 41.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Ipswich Town @ 2.70, Draw @ 3.20, Sunderland @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our top prediction is Sunderland to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.