Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model rates Marseille as the favourite with a 50.3% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Marseille 50.3%, draw 23.8%, Strasbourg 25.9%.

Where can I watch Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 48.0% probability and Under 2.5 goals 52.0%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 761 picks Ligue 1 Friday 21 August 2026, 19:45

Marseille vs Strasbourg Predictions & Odds

M Marseille 50.3% @1.73

VS Draw 23.8%

S Strasbourg 25.9% @4.00

Our model call Leans Marseille, but only just A 50% call, draw at 24%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Marseille 50% 1.73 Draw 24% 3.90 Strasbourg 26% 4.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 52% 2.50 Over 2.5 48% 1.53 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 46% 2.45 Yes 54% 1.53

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	48.0%	67.1%	19 pts under
Both Teams to Score	54.4%	66.7%	12 pts under
Marseille Win	50.3%	59.2%	9 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 65% of Marseille home games

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Marseille and Strasbourg Separated by Fine Margins

The model makes Marseille 50% favourites here. Strasbourg carry the 26% upset.

Marseille slight edge (50%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Marseille have taken 7 points from their last five; Strasbourg have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Marseille edge it at 50% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Strasbourg's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

Interestingly, Marseille look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Marseille create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.4 a game on the balance. Strasbourg create 1.6 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of 0.0. The underlying numbers clearly favour Marseille. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Marseille should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Marseille are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Strasbourg manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Marseille's home games and 76% of Strasbourg's away matches.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Marseille but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.22 , which pays out if Marseille win or draw, covers 74% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%) and 1-0 (8%).

First Half Result

Marseille HT 2.15
Draw HT 2.50
Strasbourg HT 4.00

Team Intel

📊 Marseille · xG

For: 1.79/g Against: 1.41/g

💎 Underscoring xG by 0.59/g, value possible

📊 Strasbourg · xG

For: 1.57/g Against: 1.59/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Marseille vs Strasbourg Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Marseille Win	@1.73	50.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.90	23.8%	William Hill
Match Result	Strasbourg Win	@4.00	25.9%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.53	54.4%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.45	45.6%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.53	48.0%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.50	52.0%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.30	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.38	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.66	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Marseille

2W streak

Last 5 WWLDL

At home WD

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 50% FTS 24%

Strasbourg

2W streak 3 unbeaten

Last 5 WWDLL

On the road WDLW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 18%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 8.4%

1-0 8.0%

2-0 5.8%

3-1 4.0%

3-2 2.9%

3-0 2.8%

4-1 1.4%

4-2 1.0%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 2 goals 85% @1.24 BetVictor
Over 6.5 corners 85% @1.18 Unibet
Strasbourg under 5.5 corners 85% @1.19 Unibet
Under 4.5 goals 83% @1.25 Bet365
Under 2 first half goals 83% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Marseille over 3.5 corners 83% @1.28 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 82% @1.31 Betano
Marseille under 7.5 corners 82% @1.23 Unibet
Over 1 second half goals 80% @1.25 Marathon Bet
Under 11.5 corners 80% @1.26 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 78% @1.34 Betano
Strasbourg over 0.5 goals 76% @1.36 Bet365

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Marseille v Strasbourg builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Marseille or Draw 83% @ 1.20
2 Under 3.5 Goals 58% @ 1.73
3 Both Teams to Score 56% @ 1.77

@3.69 £10 returns £36.93

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 761 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Marseille vs Strasbourg: FAQs

Who will win Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model makes Marseille the favourite with a 50.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Best available odds: Marseille @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.90, Strasbourg @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Marseille vs Strasbourg kick off?

Marseille vs Strasbourg kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.4% probability.

Marseille vs Strasbourg prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Marseille to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.