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Tough night ahead for Los Angeles Galaxy. San Jose Earthquakes arrive as the bookies' favourite.
A MLS meeting between Los Angeles Galaxy (14th, 30 pts) and San Jose Earthquakes (10th, 41 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Los Angeles Galaxy will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while San Jose Earthquakes travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.40. Model probability 69% vs implied 71%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Los Angeles Galaxy will be looking to make home advantage count (W7 D2 L8 at home). San Jose Earthquakes's away record reads W6 D2 L9. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for San Jose Earthquakes: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Los Angeles Galaxy create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 2.0), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. San Jose Earthquakes create 1.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, San Jose Earthquakes look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. San Jose Earthquakes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Los Angeles Galaxy are scoring 1.4 a game (1.6 of those at home) and San Jose Earthquakes manage 1.8 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. Los Angeles Galaxy score in 74% of their games and San Jose Earthquakes in 94%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Los Angeles Galaxy create chances worth 1.5 a game and San Jose Earthquakes 1.8. Combined, that's 3.3 a game from open play alone.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
San Jose Earthquakes have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.9 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Los Angeles Galaxy Win | @2.30 | 33.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 22.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @2.45 | 42.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.40 | 69.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.75 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 65.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.88 | 34.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite with a 42.1% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Los Angeles Galaxy @ 2.30, Draw @ 3.90, San Jose Earthquakes @ 2.45. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.