Leeds vs Newcastle Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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A Premier League meeting between Leeds (10th, 3 pts) and Newcastle (3rd, 4 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Season-long, Leeds average 3.0 points per game compared to Newcastle's 2.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Leeds create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Newcastle create 1.6 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Leeds average 1.0 goals per game and Newcastle manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 35% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 53% of Leeds's home games and 53% of Newcastle's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Newcastle have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Leeds have won 2, Newcastle 3, with 5 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Newcastle 4-3 Leeds, Leeds 0-0 Newcastle, Leeds 2-2 Newcastle, Newcastle 0-0 Leeds.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (12%) and 1-1 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leeds Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Newcastle Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Leeds vs Newcastle kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.8% probability.