Ipswich vs Liverpool Predictions & Odds
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Ipswich are unbeaten in their last four; Liverpool have taken five points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Premier League tie.
Interestingly, Ipswich look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Ipswich come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Liverpool create 1.5 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Ipswich. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Ipswich should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Ipswich are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Liverpool manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Ipswich shut the door in 37% of their games and Liverpool draw a blank in 11% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 52% of Ipswich's home games and 68% of Liverpool's away matches.
Ipswich do it the hard way: only 1.8 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Liverpool have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 2-1 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Ipswich Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Liverpool Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Ipswich vs Liverpool kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.