Lazio vs AC Milan Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A Serie A meeting between Lazio (10th, 3 pts) and AC Milan (1st, 6 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lazio create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. AC Milan create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Lazio average 1.0 goals per game and AC Milan manage 2.0. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 28% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 42%.
Both teams score in 42% of Lazio's home games and 42% of AC Milan's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
AC Milan are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Lazio have won 4, AC Milan 5, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Lazio 1-0 AC Milan, Lazio 1-0 AC Milan, AC Milan 1-0 Lazio, AC Milan 1-2 Lazio.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (14%) and 0-2 (13%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lazio Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | AC Milan Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lazio vs AC Milan kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 41.6% probability.