Who is favourite to win Como vs Parma?

Our model rates Como as the favourite with a 66.9% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Como 66.9%, draw 20.2%, Parma 12.9%.

Where can I watch Como vs Parma?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Como vs Parma?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 49.4% probability and Under 2.5 goals 50.6%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 870 picks Serie A Sunday 13 September 2026, 14:00

Como vs Parma Predictions & Odds

C Como 66.9% @1.27

VS Draw 20.2%

P Parma 12.9% @11.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Como A 67% call, draw at 20%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Como 67% 1.27 Draw 20% 5.25 Parma 13% 11.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 51% 2.00 Over 2.5 49% 1.80 Over 1.5 @1.25

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 58% 1.53 Yes 42% 2.38

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Como Win	66.9%	78.7%	12 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	49.4%	55.6%	6 pts under
Both Teams to Score	41.5%	42.0%	1 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 9.5 Match Corners 42% (model) Corners: Como avg 6.8 for/2.5 against, Parma avg 2.3 for/6.5 against → expected 9.1 match corners
Over 2.5 Match Cards 46% (model) Cards: Como avg 1.7/game, Parma avg 0.8/game → expected 2.5 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 43% (model) Fouls: Como avg 10.8/game, Parma avg 9.0/game → expected 19.8 match fouls
Over 24.5 Match Shots 47% (model) Shots: Como avg 15.3/game, Parma avg 9.0/game → expected 24.3 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

🚨 Parma have failed to score in 42% of matches

01The read

Como vs Parma: Match Preview & Prediction

Parma arrive on a 2-game losing run to face a side the model has at 67%.

Como to win (67%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

A quality mismatch? Como (6th, 4 pts) entertain Parma (16th, 0 pts). The table positions tell a clear story, but football has a habit of humbling the favourites.

Our verdict

The data leans towards Como (67%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Parma have the tools to make this uncomfortable.

Our pick

Our PickComo to win at @1.27. Model probability 67% vs implied 79%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model67%

Market79%

Key facts

🧤

Defensive Wall Como keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around

😶

Goal Shy Parma fail to score in 42% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often

🤝

Draw Merchants 4 draws from 10 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here

🎯

Better Chances Como come out at +1.0 a game on chance quality vs Parma's -0.9. A clear gap underneath the results

🔥

Chances Flowing Como creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will

📉

Cold Run Parma have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low

▸ Form & goals

Season-long, Como average 2.0 points per game compared to Parma's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Como come out at +1.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.9. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Parma: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Como create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 0.8), leaving them +1.0 a game on the balance. Parma create 0.7 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.9. The underlying numbers clearly favour Como. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Parma's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Como average 1.5 goals per game and Parma manage 0.6. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 42%.

Both teams score in 47% of Como's home games and 32% of Parma's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Como keep the other side out in 50% of games and Parma fail to score 42% of the time. there's a real chance one side keeps it tight at the back.

▸ Team news & context

In the last 10 meetings: Como have won 3, Parma 3, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 2 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Como 1-0 Parma, Parma 0-0 Como, Parma 0-1 Como, Como 1-1 Parma.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%) and 2-0 (11%).

First Half Result

Como HT 1.73
Draw HT 2.50
Parma HT 10.00

Team Intel

📊 Como · xG

For: 1.75/g Against: 0.80/g

📊 Parma · xG

For: 0.69/g Against: 1.58/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Como vs Parma Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Como Win	@1.27	66.9%	Bet365
Match Result	Draw	@5.25	20.2%	Bet365
Match Result	Parma Win	@11.00	12.9%	Bet365
BTTS	Yes	@2.38	41.5%	Bet365
BTTS	No	@1.53	58.5%	Bet365
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.80	49.4%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.00	50.6%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.40	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Como

1W streak 5 unbeaten

Last 5 WDWWW

At home WD

Clean sheets 50% BTTS 42% FTS 24%

Parma

2L streak

Last 5 LLWLL

On the road LLL

Clean sheets 34% BTTS 39% FTS 42%

Como vs Parma Team Stats

Como 1907

Position 6

Played 2

Record 1W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 3/2

Avg Goals Scored 1.50

Points 4

Overall Form WDWWW

Home Form WD

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Parma Calcio 1913

Position 16

Played 2

Record 0W-0D-2L

Goals F/A 0/3

Avg Goals Scored 0.57

Overall Form LLWLL

Away Form LLL

Away Record 0W-0D-1L

Como vs Parma Head to Head

3 Home Wins 4 Draws 3 Away Wins

2.1 Avg Goals

5/10 BTTS

2/10 Over 2.5

2026-05-17 Como 1-0 Parma

2025-10-25 Como 0-0 Parma

2025-05-03 Como 1-0 Parma

2024-10-19 Como 1-1 Parma

2024-02-24 Como 1-1 Parma

2023-10-20 Como 1-2 Parma

2023-03-18 como 2-0 Parma

2022-10-29 como 0-1 Parma

2022-04-06 como 3-4 Parma

2021-11-28 como 1-1 Parma

Full Como vs Parma head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-0 15.3%

2-0 11.4%

2-1 9.0%

3-0 5.7%

3-1 4.5%

4-0 2.1%

3-2 1.8%

4-1 1.7%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 9 priced markets

Como under 3.5 goals 85% @1.18 Bet365
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.20 Bet365
Over 0.5 second half goals 82% @1.22 Bet365
Over 1.5 goals 80% @1.25 Bet365
Como to win 79% @1.27 Bet365
Over 0.5 first half goals 75% @1.33 Bet365
Under 3.5 goals 71% @1.40 Bet365
Under 1.5 first half goals 69% @1.44 Bet365
Como over 1.5 goals 69% @1.44 Bet365

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Como v Parma builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Como 69% @ 1.46
2 Over 1.5 Goals 74% @ 1.35
3 Both Teams to Score - No 58% @ 1.71

@3.36 £10 returns £33.58

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 870 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Como vs Parma: FAQs

Who will win Como vs Parma?

Our model makes Como the favourite with a 66.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Como vs Parma?

Best available odds: Como @ 1.27, Draw @ 5.25, Parma @ 11.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Como vs Parma kick off?

Como vs Parma kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 41.5% probability.

Como vs Parma prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Como to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.