Flamengo vs Mirassol Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) host Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Pedro has been Flamengo's spearhead, with 14 goals and 4 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 1.23 shots on target per game. Nathan Fogaça has been Mirassol's main threat, with 2 goals and 0 assists in 10 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game.
Flamengo will be looking to make home advantage count (W14 D5 L0 at home). Mirassol's away record reads W6 D6 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. The gap in chance quality is clear: Flamengo come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Mirassol: they're giving up chances worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.2 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Flamengo create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Mirassol create 1.5 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Flamengo. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Mirassol's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.2 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Flamengo average 2.1 goals per game and Mirassol manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.8. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Flamengo and Mirassol together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Matches involving Flamengo always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Mirassol will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
This has title race implications written all over it. Flamengo sit 1st while Mirassol are 4th. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Flamengo are in great shape right now, banging in 2.1 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
In the last 3 meetings: Flamengo have won 2, Mirassol 0, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 5.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 3 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo, Mirassol 3-3 Flamengo, Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Flamengo vs Mirassol kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.