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Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Tough night ahead for Mirassol. Flamengo arrive as the bookies' favourite.
There's barely anything between these two. Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) and Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Brasileirão Série A table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Mirassol will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Flamengo travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Mirassol will be looking to make home advantage count (W12 D7 L0 at home). Flamengo's away record reads W9 D5 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Mirassol's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. The gap in chance quality is clear: Flamengo come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Mirassol create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Flamengo create 2.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, Flamengo look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mirassol are scoring 1.7 a game (2.2 of those at home) and Flamengo manage 2.1 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 41%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%. Two or more goals at @1.36 is a steadier alternative for accas. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Mirassol and Flamengo together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
The stakes are high for Mirassol at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Flamengo face a tough afternoon.
A result here could reshape the title picture. Flamengo (1st) visit Mirassol (4th) knowing anything less than a win could see them slip.
Flamengo are similarly well-balanced. 2.1 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (10%) and 0-2 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @3.80 | 19.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @1.91 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 44.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.80 | 56.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 40.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 59.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.27 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Flamengo the favourite with a 51.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Mirassol @ 3.80, Draw @ 3.25, Flamengo @ 1.91. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Mirassol vs Flamengo kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.