Santos vs Mirassol Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Santos welcome Mirassol.
Santos (12th, 47 pts) host Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Gabriel Barbosa has been Santos's spearhead, with 7 goals and 2 assists in 13 appearances, averaging 0.54 shots on target per game. Edson has been Mirassol's main threat, with 2 goals and 0 assists in 14 appearances, averaging 0.29 shots on target per game.
Santos will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D6 L5 at home). Mirassol's away record reads W6 D6 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Mirassol: they're giving up chances worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.2 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Santos create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Mirassol create 1.5 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Mirassol's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.2 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Santos average 1.2 goals per game and Mirassol manage 1.7. Combined that's just 2.9. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Santos Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Santos vs Mirassol kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.