03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Bayern München Win |
66.2% |
80.0% |
14 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
57.3% |
69.4% |
12 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
80.0% |
84.0% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 71% of Bayern München home games
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München 66%, the draw 18%, VfB Stuttgart 16%. That's the shape of this one.
Bayern München to win (66%) | Three or more goals likely (80%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Bayern München at @1.30 for this Bundesliga tie, with VfB Stuttgart out at @8.00.
Our verdict
The data leans towards Bayern München (66%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. VfB Stuttgart have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our pick
Our PickBayern München to win at @1.30. Model probability 66% vs implied 77%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🔥
Chances Flowing
Bayern München creating chances worth 2.8 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 65% of Bayern München's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
VfB Stuttgart could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.2 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.9. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bayern München come out at +1.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for VfB Stuttgart: they're giving up chances worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.8 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bayern München create chances worth 3.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +1.3 a game on the balance. VfB Stuttgart create 1.9 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bayern München. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. VfB Stuttgart are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.2 goals vs chance quality of 1.9). Both runs could cool off at once. VfB Stuttgart's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 vs 1.8 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Bayern München average 0.0 goals per game and VfB Stuttgart manage 2.2. Combined that's just 2.2. Even so, we make it 80% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 57%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Bayern München create chances worth 3.0 a game and VfB Stuttgart 1.9. Combined, that's 4.9 a game from open play alone.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Bayern München's home games and 82% of VfB Stuttgart's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Bayern München do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. VfB Stuttgart have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (2.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Bayern München will create openings. The chances they create are worth 3.0 a game and VfB Stuttgart give up chances worth 1.8 on the road. Expect Bayern München to see plenty of the ball.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-1 (3%).
First Half Result
-
Bayern München HT
1.65
-
Draw HT
3.00
-
VfB Stuttgart HT
6.00
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Bayern München · xG
For: 3.03/g
Against: 1.75/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.37/g, possibly running hot
📊 VfB Stuttgart · xG
For: 1.91/g
Against: 1.76/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.39/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bayern München Win |
@1.30
|
66.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@5.50
|
17.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
VfB Stuttgart Win |
@8.00
|
16.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
57.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.62
|
42.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.25
|
80.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@4.35
|
20.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.07
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@10.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@1.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.4%
3-1
2.7%
3-0
2.5%
3-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 3.5 second half goals
85%
@1.18
William Hill
-
Over 2.5 goals
84%
@1.26
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Bayern München over 4.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
VfB Stuttgart under 4.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Under 5.5 goals
82%
@1.27
Betano
-
VfB Stuttgart over 1.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Bayern München under 9.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Bayern München under 4 goals
81%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Bayern München to win
80%
@1.33
1xBet
-
Over 1 first half goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Over 3 goals
79%
@1.32
BetVictor
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