Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
M
M. Grundetjern
1+ Shots on Target
62% (model)
M. Grundetjern averages 0.88 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
E
E. Breivik
1+ Shots on Target
57% (model)
E. Breivik averages 0.94 SoT/match (17 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
F
F. Thorvaldsen
1+ Shots on Target
57% (model)
F. Thorvaldsen averages 0.77 SoT/match (13 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
L
L. Haren
1+ Shots on Target
56% (model)
L. Haren averages 0.75 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
H
H. Bjørdal
1+ Shots on Target
55% (model)
H. Bjørdal averages 0.73 SoT/match (15 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 11.5 Match Corners
64% (model)
Corners: Valerenga avg 8.3 for/7.0 against, Molde avg 6.6 for/4.0 against → expected 13.0 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
47% (model)
Cards: Valerenga avg 1.8/game, Molde avg 2.7/game → expected 4.5 match cards
-
Over 20.5 Match Fouls
53% (model)
Fouls: Valerenga avg 9.7/game, Molde avg 11.3/game → expected 21.0 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
96% (model)
Shots: Valerenga avg 17.5/game, Molde avg 19.3/game → expected 36.8 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing Valerenga vs Molde: Who Wins?
Valerenga 29%, the draw 24%, Molde 45%. That's the shape of this one.
Valerenga (6th, 43 pts) host Molde (10th, 39 pts) in the Eliteserien. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
L. Haren has been Valerenga's spearhead, with 7 goals and 1 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game. E. Breivik has been Molde's main threat, with 7 goals and 5 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 0.94 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.36. Model probability 73% vs implied 74%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
L
L. Haren
Valerenga · Midfielder
7 goals · 1 assist in 16 apps
0.8 shots on target a game
E
E. Breivik
Molde · Attacker
7 goals · 5 assists in 17 apps
0.9 shots on target a game
Key facts
📊
H2H Favours Away
Molde have won 6 of the last 9 encounters. They have a psychological edge
🎯
Chances Favour Away
Molde come out at +0.6 a game on chance quality against Valerenga's -0.7. The visitors are creating far better chances
🔥
Creative Force
Molde creating chances worth 2.0 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 75% of Molde's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Valerenga will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D3 L3 at home). Molde's away record reads W4 D2 L9. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Valerenga create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 2.0), leaving them -0.7 a game on the balance. Molde create 2.0 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Molde look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Valerenga are scoring 1.6 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Molde manage 1.5 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 71%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 73%. Valerenga score in 86% of their games and Molde in 70%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.4 goals when they meet, with 6 of the last 9 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Valerenga create chances worth 1.3 a game and Molde 2.0. Combined, that's 3.3 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 9 meetings: Valerenga have won 1, Molde 6, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.4 goals per game. 6 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Molde 5-1 Valerenga, Molde 4-1 Valerenga, Valerenga 2-3 Molde.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Valerenga HT
2.80
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
Molde HT
2.62
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Valerenga · xG
For: 1.27/g
Against: 1.99/g
📊 Molde · xG
For: 2.03/g
Against: 1.43/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Valerenga vs Molde Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Valerenga Win |
@2.62
|
28.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
24.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Molde Win |
@2.25
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.36
|
72.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.90
|
27.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.36
|
70.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@3.11
|
29.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@7.15
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@1.83
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.94
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Valerenga vs Molde Team Stats
Valerenga
Position
6
Played
29
Record
12W-4D-13L
Goals F/A
46/50
Avg Goals Scored
1.60
Points
43
Overall Form
DLLWW
Home Form
LLWDW
Home Record
8W-3D-3L
Molde
Position
10
Played
30
Record
12W-3D-15L
Goals F/A
46/42
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
Points
39
Overall Form
WLDWL
Away Form
LWDLL
Away Record
4W-2D-9L
Valerenga vs Molde Head to Head
1 Home Wins
2 Draws
6 Away Wins
3.4
Avg Goals
6/9
BTTS
6/9
Over 2.5
2026-04-26
Valerenga 1-5 Molde
2025-09-28
Valerenga 1-4 Molde
2025-06-22
Valerenga 2-3 Molde
2023-08-19
Valerenga 0-0 Molde
2023-07-15
Valerenga 0-4 Molde
2022-11-13
Valerenga 1-2 Molde
2022-04-02
Valerenga 0-1 Molde
2021-09-19
Valerenga 1-1 Molde
2021-05-27
Valerenga 3-2 Molde
Full Valerenga vs Molde head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.6%
1-3
4.6%
2-3
3.5%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.8%
2-4
1.4%
0-4
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 first half goals
85%
@1.23
Superbet
-
Valerenga over 3.5 corners
85%
@1.26
Superbet
-
Valerenga or Molde (double chance)
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Molde over 1 goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Over 9 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Molde under 7 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Molde over 3.5 corners
82%
@1.23
Betano
-
Valerenga over 4 corners
81%
@1.23
1xBet
-
Under 13.5 corners
81%
@1.32
Superbet
-
Valerenga under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Valerenga over 1 goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Both teams to score: Yes
77%
@1.36
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →