Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
P
P. Christiansen
1+ Shots on Target
73% (model)
P. Christiansen averages 1.19 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
K
K. Lonebu
1+ Shots on Target
64% (model)
K. Lonebu averages 1.13 SoT/match (16 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Z
Z. Tripić
Anytime Assist
61% (model)
Z. Tripić on 0.88 assists/match (16 apps, 62 key passes), match xG 2.77
Z
Z. Tripić
1+ Shots on Target
56% (model)
Z. Tripić averages 0.75 SoT/match (16 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
G
G. Stensness
1+ Shots on Target
52% (model)
G. Stensness averages 0.67 SoT/match (15 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🚨
Aalesund have failed to score in 50% of matches
01The read
Viking and Aalesund Promise Fireworks. Preview & Prediction
The model makes Viking 67% favourites here. Aalesund carry the 14% upset.
Viking have won three of their last five; Aalesund are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Eliteserien tie.
Z. Tripić has been Viking's spearhead, with 6 goals and 14 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game. E. Osenbroch has been Aalesund's main threat, with 5 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances, averaging 0.50 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickViking to win at @1.29. Model probability 67% vs implied 78%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
Z
Z. Tripić
Viking · Midfielder
6 goals · 14 assists in 16 apps
0.8 shots on target a game
E
E. Osenbroch
Aalesund · Midfielder
5 goals · 3 assists in 16 apps
0.5 shots on target a game
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Aalesund fail to score in 50% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
📉
Due a Correction
Viking scoring +1.0 more than their chances suggest while Aalesund are scoring fewer than theirs by -0.8. Expect this gap to narrow
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Viking's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Aalesund have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Viking average 2.2 per game and Aalesund chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. One thing to keep in mind about Viking. They're scoring 2.2 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.8. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+1.0), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Viking create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.7 a game on the balance. Aalesund create 0.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Viking. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Viking are scoring 2.2 goals a game off chances worth just 1.8. That's +1.0 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Goals look likely here. Viking average 2.2 per game (2.2 at home) and Aalesund chip in with 2.0 (4.0 away). Defensively, Viking concede 1.0 at home and Aalesund leak 0.0 on the road. We make it 77% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%.
▸ Team news & context
Viking are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Aalesund, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Aalesund are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Viking HT
1.57
-
Draw HT
3.00
-
Aalesund HT
7.00
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Viking · xG
For: 1.80/g
Against: 1.10/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 1.00/g, possibly running hot
📊 Aalesund · xG
For: 0.77/g
Against: 1.52/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.77/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Viking vs Aalesund Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Viking Win |
@1.29
|
67.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@5.50
|
16.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Aalesund Win |
@8.00
|
14.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.44
|
58.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.50
|
42.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.28
|
77.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@4.00
|
22.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.07
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@9.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@1.67
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@2.24
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Viking vs Aalesund Team Stats
Viking
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Aalesund
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
4/1
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Overall Form
DDLDL
Away Form
DLDWL
Away Record
1W-0D-0L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.8%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
2.6%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 5.5 goals
85%
@1.24
Betano
-
Aalesund under 5.5 corners
85%
@1.24
Superbet
-
Viking under 11.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Superbet
-
Viking over 1.5 goals
84%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Viking under 4 goals
83%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Under 14 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Viking over 5.5 corners
83%
@1.22
Superbet
-
Over 2.5 goals
82%
@1.28
10Bet
-
Aalesund under 5 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Under 3 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Viking to win
80%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Under 2.5 first half goals
80%
@1.31
Superbet
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