03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Stade Brestois 29 Win |
29.5% |
35.1% |
6 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
53.1% |
56.2% |
3 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
49.9% |
48.1% |
2 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse: Who Wins?
The model makes Toulouse 43% favourites here. Stade Brestois 29 carry the 30% upset.
Toulouse slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
A quality mismatch? Stade Brestois 29 (6th, 1 pts) entertain Toulouse (15th, 0 pts). The table positions tell a clear story, but football has a habit of humbling the favourites.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Toulouse at just 43%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Toulouse, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
Toulouse have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Stade Brestois 29 average 1.0 points per game compared to Toulouse's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Toulouse could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.3 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.0. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stade Brestois 29 create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. Toulouse create 1.0 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Toulouse are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.3 goals vs chance quality of 1.0). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Stade Brestois 29 are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Toulouse manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Two or more goals at @1.30 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 47% of Stade Brestois 29's home games and 53% of Toulouse's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Stade Brestois 29 are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Toulouse, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Toulouse 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse, Toulouse 2-0 Stade Brestois 29, Toulouse 2-4 Stade Brestois 29, Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Toulouse.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 2-1 (9%).
First Half Result
-
Stade Brestois 29 HT
3.40
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
Toulouse HT
3.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Stade Brestois 29 · xG
For: 1.11/g
Against: 1.72/g
📊 Toulouse · xG
For: 1.01/g
Against: 1.39/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.39/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Stade Brestois 29 Win |
@2.93
|
29.5% |
1xBet |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.5% |
1xBet |
| Match Result |
Toulouse Win |
@2.57
|
43.0% |
1xBet |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.78
|
53.1% |
1xBet |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
46.9% |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.08
|
49.9% |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.87
|
50.1% |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
1xBet |
05The numbers
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Team Stats
Stade Brestois 29
Position
6
Played
1
Record
0W-1D-0L
Goals F/A
2/2
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
1
Overall Form
DDLLL
Home Form
DLD
Home Record
0W-0D-0L
Toulouse FC
Position
15
Played
1
Record
0W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
0/2
Avg Goals Scored
1.33
Overall Form
LDWWD
Away Form
DWL
Away Record
0W-0D-0L
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Head to Head
5 Home Wins
3 Draws
2 Away Wins
3.2
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-01-25
Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse
2025-08-24
Stade Brestois 29 0-2 Toulouse
2025-03-30
Stade Brestois 29 4-2 Toulouse
2024-09-22
Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Toulouse
2024-05-19
Stade Brestois 29 3-0 Toulouse
2023-10-08
Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Toulouse
2023-04-02
Stade Brestois 29 3-1 Toulouse
2023-01-15
Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Toulouse
2020-01-11
Stade Brestois 29 5-2 Toulouse
2019-08-10
Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Toulouse
Full Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.7%
1-0
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
3-2
4.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 11 priced markets
-
Toulouse under 2 goals
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.24
1xBet
-
Toulouse over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Over 1.5 goals
77%
@1.30
1xBet
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.30
1xBet
-
Stade Brestois 29 or Toulouse (double chance)
74%
@1.35
1xBet
-
Stade Brestois 29 over 0.5 goals
74%
@1.35
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
72%
@1.38
1xBet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
71%
@1.41
1xBet
-
Over 1 second half goals
68%
@1.46
1xBet
-
Toulouse or Draw (double chance)
68%
@1.46
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →