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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 52.8% | 63.3% | 10 pts under |
| Sparta Praha Win | 26.5% | 33.7% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.4% | 59.5% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Tough night ahead for Sparta Praha. Lyon arrive as the bookies' favourite.
Sparta Praha take on Lyon in the Champions League. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sparta Praha will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Lyon travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Lyon at 46%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Lyon are the marginal favourites at 46%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Sparta Praha will fancy their chances and the draw at 27% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 53%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.22 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sparta Praha Win | @3.10 | 26.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 27.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lyon Win | @2.05 | 46.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 47.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 53.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.08 | 46.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Lyon the favourite with a 46.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sparta Praha @ 3.10, Draw @ 3.30, Lyon @ 2.05. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sparta Praha vs Lyon kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Champions League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 52.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Lyon to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.