01The read
Analysing Southampton vs West Ham: Who Wins?
The model makes West Ham 43% favourites here. Southampton carry the 29% upset.
Southampton have won three of their last five; West Ham have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
🤝
Draw Merchants
4 draws from 10 meetings. Stalemates are the pattern here
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 71% of Southampton's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Southampton create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. West Ham create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Southampton. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Southampton are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and West Ham manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Southampton have won 2, West Ham 4, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: West Ham 1-1 Southampton, Southampton 0-1 West Ham, West Ham 1-0 Southampton.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Southampton HT
3.00
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
West Ham HT
2.88
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Southampton · xG
For: 1.75/g
Against: 1.22/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.58/g, possibly running hot
📊 West Ham · xG
For: 1.22/g
Against: 1.43/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Southampton vs West Ham Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Southampton Win |
@2.62
|
28.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
28.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
West Ham Win |
@2.45
|
42.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.57
|
54.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
58.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.19
|
42.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.47
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Southampton vs West Ham Head to Head
2 Home Wins
4 Draws
4 Away Wins
2.2
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2025-04-19
Southampton 1-1 West Ham
2024-12-26
Southampton 0-1 West Ham
2023-04-02
Southampton 0-1 West Ham
2022-10-16
Southampton 1-1 West Ham
2022-03-02
Southampton 3-1 West Ham
2021-12-26
Southampton 3-2 West Ham
2021-09-11
Southampton 0-0 West Ham
2021-05-23
Southampton 0-3 West Ham
2020-12-29
Southampton 0-0 West Ham
2020-02-29
Southampton 1-3 West Ham
Full Southampton vs West Ham head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.5%
3-2
3.2%
2-3
2.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Unibet
-
West Ham over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.23
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.26
1xBet
-
Southampton or West Ham (double chance)
82%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Southampton over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
81%
@1.29
Betano
-
Southampton under 2 goals
80%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.36
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
78%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Over 8.5 corners
78%
@1.50
Unibet
-
West Ham under 2 goals
77%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
West Ham under 6.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →