Rennes vs Marseille Predictions & Odds
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Rennes have lost three of their last six; Marseille have won three straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Ligue 1 tie.
A concern for Marseille: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Rennes create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Marseille create 1.8 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Marseille's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Rennes average 1.8 goals per game and Marseille manage 4.0. Combined that's just 5.8. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Rennes and Marseille together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 71% of Rennes's home games and 35% of Marseille's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Rennes are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 2.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Marseille, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Marseille have goals in them (4.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Rennes have won 2, Marseille 7, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Marseille 3-1 Rennes, Marseille 3-0 Rennes, Rennes 1-0 Marseille, Marseille 4-2 Rennes.
Most likely scorelines: 1-3 (8%) and 1-2 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Rennes Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Marseille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Rennes vs Marseille kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.