Auxerre vs Nice Predictions & Odds
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A Ligue 1 meeting between Auxerre (17th, 0 pts) and Nice (10th, 1 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Season-long, Nice average 1.0 points per game compared to Auxerre's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. One thing to keep in mind about Auxerre. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 0.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.6), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Nice are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.1 against 0.6 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Auxerre create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Nice create 1.1 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of -0.8. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Auxerre are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 0.9. That's +0.6 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Nice are creating chances worth 1.1 a game but only finishing 0.6. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Auxerre are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Nice manage 0.6 (0.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 64%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.0 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both teams score in 35% of Auxerre's home games and 65% of Nice's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Auxerre need points desperately. Sitting 17th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Auxerre are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 5.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Nice, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Nice prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Auxerre against this setup.
In the last 10 meetings: Auxerre have won 3, Nice 3, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Auxerre 2-1 Nice, Nice 3-1 Auxerre, Nice 1-1 Auxerre, Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 1-3 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Auxerre Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Nice Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Auxerre vs Nice kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.3% probability.