Lorient vs Toulouse Predictions & Odds
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A Ligue 1 meeting between Lorient (10th, 1 pts) and Toulouse (15th, 0 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Season-long, Lorient average 1.0 points per game compared to Toulouse's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Toulouse could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.2 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.0. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Lorient create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Toulouse create 1.0 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The underlying numbers clearly favour Lorient. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Toulouse are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.2 goals vs chance quality of 1.0). Both runs could cool off at once.
Lorient average 1.6 goals per game and Toulouse manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.8. We make it only 14% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Lorient's home games and 53% of Toulouse's away matches.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Lorient have won 1, Toulouse 4, with 5 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Toulouse 1-0 Lorient, Lorient 1-1 Toulouse, Lorient 1-2 Toulouse, Toulouse 1-1 Lorient.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 1-0 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Lorient Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Toulouse Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Lorient vs Toulouse kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.