Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
A
Allan
1+ Shots on Target
56% (model)
Allan averages 0.75 SoT/match (20 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
C
Cuiabano
1+ Shots on Target
47% (model)
Cuiabano averages 0.71 SoT/match (14 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
J
J. Rodríguez
1+ Shots on Target
38% (model)
J. Rodríguez averages 0.53 SoT/match (15 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
T
Thiago Mendes
To Be Carded
36% (model)
Thiago Mendes (Midfielder) on 0.37 yellows/match (19 apps), pos-mult 1.20
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
52% (model)
Corners: Palmeiras avg 4.8 for/3.8 against, Vasco da Gama avg 5.3 for/3.7 against → expected 8.8 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
57% (model)
Cards: Palmeiras avg 2.0/game, Vasco da Gama avg 2.0/game → expected 4.0 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
67% (model)
Fouls: Palmeiras avg 13.8/game, Vasco da Gama avg 13.2/game → expected 27.0 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
92% (model)
Shots: Palmeiras avg 17.7/game, Vasco da Gama avg 17.0/game → expected 34.7 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Palmeiras Host Vasco da Gama: Our Prediction
Palmeiras 56%, the draw 24%, Vasco da Gama 17%. That's the shape of this one.
Palmeiras (2nd, 76 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Vasco da Gama side (14th, 45 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Andreas Pereira has been Palmeiras's spearhead, with 1 goals and 9 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 0.27 shots on target per game. Thiago Mendes has been Vasco da Gama's main threat, with 3 goals and 1 assists in 19 appearances, averaging 0.37 shots on target per game.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickPalmeiras to win at @1.57. Model probability 56% vs implied 64%. The market is 8pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key men
A
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras · Midfielder
1 goal · 9 assists in 22 apps
0.3 shots on target a game
T
Thiago Mendes
Vasco da Gama · Midfielder
3 goals · 1 assist in 19 apps
0.4 shots on target a game
Key facts
📊
H2H Dominance
Palmeiras have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
⚖
Class Gap
Goal difference tells the story: Palmeiras at +33 vs Vasco da Gama at -5. A chasm in quality
▸ Form & goals
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Palmeiras have gone L-D-W-L-W, Vasco da Gama's L-D-D-D-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Palmeiras create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Vasco da Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Palmeiras. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Palmeiras are scoring 1.7 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Vasco da Gama manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
▸ Team news & context
Palmeiras do it the hard way: only 1.7 a game up top, but a mean 0.9 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Palmeiras have won 7, Vasco da Gama 1, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.1 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Vasco da Gama 2-1 Palmeiras, Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco da Gama, Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Palmeiras HT
2.05
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Vasco da Gama HT
5.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Palmeiras · xG
For: 1.41/g
Against: 1.20/g
📊 Vasco da Gama · xG
For: 1.03/g
Against: 1.57/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Palmeiras Win |
@1.57
|
56.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
23.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Vasco da Gama Win |
@5.00
|
16.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.83
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.91
|
54.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
51.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.96
|
48.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.37
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Team Stats
Palmeiras
Position
2
Played
38
Record
23W-7D-8L
Goals F/A
66/33
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
76
Overall Form
LDWLW
Home Form
DLWDD
Home Record
12W-5D-2L
Vasco da Gama
Position
14
Played
38
Record
13W-6D-19L
Goals F/A
55/60
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
45
Overall Form
LDDDL
Away Form
DDLLD
Away Record
5W-2D-12L
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Head to Head
7 Home Wins
2 Draws
1 Away Wins
2.1
Avg Goals
4/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-03-12
Palmeiras 1-2 Vasco DA Gama
2025-10-01
Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA Gama
2025-05-04
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
2024-09-22
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
2024-06-14
Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA Gama
2023-08-27
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
2023-04-23
Palmeiras 2-2 Vasco DA Gama
2021-01-26
Palmeiras 1-1 Vasco DA Gama
2020-11-08
Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
2019-11-07
Palmeiras 2-1 Vasco DA Gama
Full Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-0
4.6%
3-2
3.0%
4-1
2.2%
4-0
1.9%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
81%
@1.31
Betano
-
Paulinho Sampaio 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners
Smart
83%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Under 6.5 cards
74%
@1.41
Unibet
-
Vitor Roque 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Combined 3.60
· £5 returns
£18.01
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Palmeiras or Vasco da Gama (double chance)
85%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Brenner 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Gustavo Gomez 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Paulinho Sampaio 1+ shots on target
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners
83%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Palmeiras over 1 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Palmeiras under 8.5 corners
82%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.31
Betano
-
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners
81%
@1.35
Superbet
-
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.39
Superbet
Build a slip from these markets →