01The read
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: Too Close to Call?
Too close to call on the numbers. Nottingham Forest 37%, Leeds 36%, the draw live at 27%.
Nottingham Forest have taken five points from their last five; Leeds have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Leeds fail to score in 40% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
▸ Form & goals
One thing to keep in mind about Nottingham Forest. They're scoring 1.9 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.4. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.9), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. A concern for Leeds: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Nottingham Forest create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Leeds create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.9 goals a game off chances worth just 1.4. That's +0.9 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Leeds's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.9 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Leeds manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
▸ Team news & context
Nottingham Forest are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Leeds, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Nottingham Forest have won 4, Leeds 3, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.6 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest, Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds, Nottingham Forest 0-2 Leeds.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Nottingham Forest HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
Leeds HT
3.40
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Nottingham Forest · xG
For: 1.35/g
Against: 1.53/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.85/g, possibly running hot
📊 Leeds · xG
For: 1.43/g
Against: 1.37/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Nottingham Forest Win |
@2.20
|
37.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
26.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Leeds Win |
@3.20
|
36.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
51.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.05
|
48.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
52.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
47.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Head to Head
4 Home Wins
3 Draws
3 Away Wins
2.6
Avg Goals
6/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-02-06
Forest 1-3 Leeds
2025-11-09
Forest 3-1 Leeds
2023-07-27
Forest 0-2 Leeds
2023-04-04
Forest 1-2 Leeds
2023-02-05
Forest 1-0 Leeds
2020-02-08
Forest 2-0 Leeds
2019-08-10
Forest 1-1 Leeds
2019-01-01
Forest 4-2 Leeds
2018-10-27
Forest 1-1 Leeds
2018-01-01
Forest 0-0 Leeds
Full Nottingham Forest vs Leeds head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
11.9%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
84%
@1.24
Betano
-
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.23
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.27
BetVictor
-
Nottingham Forest or Leeds (double chance)
80%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Over 8 corners
79%
@1.27
1xBet
-
Nottingham Forest or Draw (double chance)
78%
@1.38
Betano
-
Leeds over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Nottingham Forest under 2 goals
78%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
76%
@1.40
Betano
-
Leeds over 0.5 goals
76%
@1.34
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →